Canada can avoid global wave of populism, says local professor

Given the political shifts going on in the world, is Canada on the cusp of a populist eruption?

Paul Summerville, an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria and the co-author of the 2022 book Reclaiming Populism: How Economic Fairness Can Win Back Disenchanted Voters, doesn’t think so.

“Don’t worry Canada, we’re not going down the Trump road,” he said in a video interview with The Signal. He added, however, that steps need to be taken to ensure that Canada remains “relatively inoculated to the populist upheaval that has occurred elsewhere.”

Summerville, who lives in Centreville, N.S., says the most important indicator of a country’s susceptibility to populism is its social mobility – that is, the extent to which success depends on the wealth of one’s parents. Low social mobility results in an unhappy population more vulnerable to the promises made by populist leaders.

Historically, Canada has done well in managing constraints to social mobility, he said, including access to housing and health care, food prices, and education. According to Summerville, managing these factors helps ensure everyone starts from a place of equal opportunity.

But with the rising cost of housing, education and groceries, Summerville said “the pillars of social mobility in Canada are under pressure – there’s cracks in them.” In short, higher costs make it harder for people to get ahead.

Summerville’s book, which he co-authored with Harvard research fellow Eric Protzer, has been reviewed by the London School of Economics (LSE) and Cambridge University Press, and has been featured in talks at LSE and Harvard.

A global trend

The re-election in the United States of Donald Trump as president is evidence of the global shift to populism, he said. Trump’s win in 2016 was a watershed moment in a global wave of anti-democratic populism, which has included populist movements in the U.K., France and Italy, and has occurred alongside a growing trend of far-right sentiments.

Trump used political tactics that Summerville describes in the book as quintessentially populist: targeting elites and presenting himself as the only person qualified to deal with the broken system. Calls to fix the “rigged system” and to “drain the swamp” characterized Trump’s rise through America’s political ranks, and during his acceptance of the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, he said that he “alone could fix” the system.

In Canada, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre  has used populist language to appeal to voters, positioning himself as working against the elites who have enriched themselves at the expense of the working class. He has suggested defunding the CBC and has campaigned heavily on repealing the federal carbon tax.

Poilievre’s message appears to be gaining ground in Canada.

A recent poll by Abacus Data found the federal Conservatives were polling at 41 per cent, 19 percentage points above the Liberals, the next most popular choice. The People’s Party of Canada, which positions itself as the populist party of the country, was polling at four per cent.

Populism at home

Summerville doesn’t think this means Canada will follow in the anti-democratic footsteps of the United States. He says Canada’s high social mobility provides a firewall against it.

But it’s a firewall that must be constantly maintained.

“You don’t create low social mobility in an afternoon, you know. It takes 25 years,” said Summerville. What is being seen globally, he said, is other countries allowing the social mobility of their citizens to be eroded over decades.

What is needed, Summerville said, is to ensure all Canadians are provided with equal opportunity. In other words, people should have the same starting point in life and should be rewarded for the effort and value they put into the system.

People should be able to “live life as much as possible on their own terms,” said Summerville. To allow Canadians to do that, he said, economic fairness in the form of social mobility must be upheld.

“The biggest challenge for Canada is to continue to strengthen the pillars of social mobility.”