Nova Scotia’s birth rate hits record low as economic pressures and changing norms reshape parenthood

Emily Grant, 35, wasn’t feeling left out—just left out of the conversation.

“The less I connected with people my age, I felt it,” she says. “There are lots of great people my age, but they have families and kids.”

In 2022, Grant started Child-Free Halifax, a Facebook group for people looking for a community where parenthood wasn’t the default. She wanted a space where conversations didn’t always centre on parenting. The group quickly took off. She picked the platform for its reach and practicality — an easy way to connect with like-minded people in Nova Scotia. By tapping into existing local networks, word spread fast.

“It was a pleasant surprise that people were so interested,” she says.

The group now has nearly 300 members and welcomes anyone who identifies with a child-free lifestyle, regardless of gender or reason. While not everyone in the group is child-free by choice, Grant says the label has become an inclusive umbrella for people without children — whether by circumstance or design.

The growing community reflects a broader shift in how people across Nova Scotia are thinking about parenthood. For some, it’s a conscious decision to delay or forgo having children. For others, the choice is shaped by fertility challenges or economic uncertainty. 

Nova Scotia’s birth rate continues to hit record lows. A recent analysis of Statistics Canada data shows that in every quarter over the past year, deaths have consistently outpaced births. Between October 2023 and October 2024, the province recorded about 2,000 births and 3,100 deaths — a natural population decline of more than 1,000. Looking back on data from late 2020 to late 2024, births have been steadily decreasing while deaths have stayed the same or increased, showing a long-term trend that points to continued population decline in the province.

Caption: Nova Scotia has seen a steady decline in births since 2020, with deaths consistently outpacing births in recent years. 

While all provinces are seeing similar shifts, Nova Scotia’s stands out. The province’s crude birth rate dropped to 6.9 live births per 1000 people in 2023—the lowest on record since 1991. With more people dying than being born, population growth now depends almost entirely on newcomers — through both international and interprovincial migration. 

This shift comes as the federal government scales back immigration targets. Under its new 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada will reduce both permanent and temporary resident admissions to help manage pressures on housing, infrastructure, and social services. The plan is expected to slow overall population growth over the next two years, with a modest rebound projected in 2027.

Nova Scotia’s experience reflects a broader national trend. International migration has accounted for the vast majority of Canada’s population growth in recent years — rising to 99 per cent in 2023–24, up from 68 per cent in the early 2000s, according to Claudine Provencher, a demographer with Statistics Canada. Experts attribute the declining birth rate to a complex mix of economic, cultural, and structural factors, including rising living costs, shifting social norms, and limited access to affordable childcare — all of which influence how and whether people choose to start families.

Visualization showing births and deaths by province: https://arcg.is/1yOizy2 

In this map, the more pink a province is, the more deaths have outweighed births. The more green a province is, the more births have outweighed deaths.

Unaffordability

A 2022 Statistics Canada report found that a significant portion of young adults have delayed major life decisions — such as moving, buying a home or starting a family — due to affordability concerns. Nearly 40 per cent of those aged 20 to 29 reported that financial constraints made it difficult to consider having children in the near future.

“Increased precarious work, rising unemployment and the difficulty of finding affordable housing have created an environment where many young people feel they simply cannot afford to start a family,” said Claudine Provencher in an interview with The Signal.

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these trends, leading to delays in marriage and childbirth across many countries, including Canada. In urban centres such as Halifax, “young adults are increasingly prioritizing financial stability over starting families,” she added. Many are renting long-term, postponing home ownership or moving in with roommates or family.

Childcare is another key affordability issue, said Grant, who runs a local group for people living child-free. 

“I know a lot of people who struggle to find childcare — from before the baby’s born to after-school care,” she said. “Many single parents face this, and without family support or flexible work arrangements, you’re kind of screwed. For couples wanting both to return to work after having a child, childcare often determines if that’s possible.”

Nova Scotia has seen a steady decline in births since 2020, with deaths consistently outpacing births in recent years.

Cultural attitudes

Shifting societal values are also playing a role in declining fertility rates, says Provencher. “People are delaying marriage and children, entering partnerships later in life, and some are opting out of marriage altogether,” she said.

These trends are especially visible in urban centres, where living arrangements are increasingly varied. The growing acceptance of alternative family structures — such as cohabitation without marriage or civil partnerships — has reshaped how people approach family planning.

Provencher also points to declining religious observance as a contributing factor. “As fewer people regularly attend religious services, we see fewer children being born,” she said. Historically, religious affiliation has been linked to larger family sizes. Its decline reflects a broader cultural shift away from traditional life milestones. 

A Statistics Canada study examining religious affiliation from 1985 to 2019 found that in 2019, 68 per cent of Canadians aged 15 and older reported a religious affiliation, down from 90 per cent in 1985.

Varies by region

Regional differences in fertility rates tell a clear story. According to 2019 data— the most recent available, as regional fertility rates are only calculated by special request — Nova Scotia’s larger urban centers, like Halifax, had significantly lower fertility rates. In Halifax, the rate was just 1.19 children per woman, compared to 1.47 smaller towns and more rural areas. The more urban the area, the lower the fertility rate.

“This contrast highlights the urban-rural divide in family planning, with more rural areas generally experiencing higher fertility rates due to factors like lower housing costs and, perhaps, more traditional family values,” Provencher says.

This urban-rural gap has implications beyond demographics. “It not only affects family structures but also impacts the local economy, particularly in sectors that rely on a growing, young workforce,” she says. According to the 2021 census, children aged 14 and under made up 14.1 per cent of Nova Scotia’s population, compared to 16.3 per cent nationally.

Reproductive technology and legal barriers

Kathleen Adams, a Nova Scotia-born fertility lawyer, has noticed another trend: over the last decade, more women are freezing their eggs, often with donor sperm, to plan for future parenthood.

“I’ve seen more women, myself included, opting for egg freezing, either alone or with a donor,” she says. However, these choices come with their own challenges. 

Adams points out that while more couples in Nova Scotia are turning to assisted reproductive technologies, “Around 95 per cent of sperm used in the country is imported, which drives up costs.”

She also highlights gaps in local legislation. Nova Scotia lacks clear legal protections for surrogates and intended parents, creating uncertainty for people trying to build families through non-traditional means.

In Nova Scotia, there is only one fertility clinic: Atlantic Assisted Reproductive Therapies. 

Health factors

Health-related issues may also be influencing fertility trends. Claudine Provencher from Statistics Canada points to diabetes as one possible factor, citing a study that found “1.3 per cent of people aged 20 to 39 had the condition between 2016 and 2019.” While that number may seem low, she says it’s likely severely underestimated — many young adults may not know they have it.

Canada’s most recent estimate of infertility dates back to a 2010 study, where one-in-six couples reported having trouble conceiving. Provencher says the data is long overdue for an update, calling for more detailed information — such as socio-demographic profiles and access to fertility treatment — to better understand what Canadians are facing today.

At the same time, births to foreign-born mothers remain a key part of the fertility landscape. Their birth rates are harder to measure, and Statistics Canada is still reviewing how best to calculate them. But researchers say their contribution to overall births will be important to monitor in the years ahead.

Other factors that may impact fertility include smoking, lead exposure and “exposure to environmental pollutants and toxins that can be toxic to gametes, resulting in a decreased number and poor quality,” Provencher said.

Choosing a different path

Emily Grant’s Child-Free Halifax group taps into a bigger debate about personal choice and the barriers that come with it.

As the group grows, so does the dialogue around what it means to live a fulfilling life outside traditional family roles.

“I just want people to know it’s okay to choose your own path,” Grant said. “We don’t have to follow the script anymore.”

Nova Scotia’s long-term population strategy has made immigration a cornerstone of its population and economic growth strategy. Premier Tim Houston has emphasized that newcomers strengthen the province by expanding the tax base, creating jobs, and enriching community life. To sustain growth, Nova Scotia aims to attract 25,000 newcomers annually, focusing on skilled workers to fill labor shortages in sectors such as healthcare, education, and construction. The province also boasts the highest immigrant retention rate in Atlantic Canada.

The Premier has publicly acknowledged this reliance on immigration and interprovincial migration to bolster population numbers. In a recent tweet, he emphasized the province’s dependence on these forms of growth to sustain its future. Link to tweet: https://x.com/TimHoustonNS/status/1834336299479707863?lang=en

With births projected to continue declining, Provencher says growth will rely on welcoming newcomers — both internationally and from other provinces.

“Fewer children now means fewer young people in the future, which could strain Nova Scotia’s education, healthcare, and social services,” Provencher adds. “Without significant efforts to address these demographic challenges, the province must adapt quickly to ensure its long-term sustainability.”

Investments in childcare, housing, and parental leave will be crucial to supporting young families and adapting to the changing demographic landscape.

Whether by choice, cost or circumstance, more Nova Scotians are stepping off the traditional path — and the numbers are starting to show it and the trend has caught the Premier’s attention.

“There’s strength in doing something different. We’re not the exception anymore,” Grant said.

About the author

Lindsay Catre

Lindsay Catre is a journalist and graduate student at the University of King’s College, where she is completing her Masters of Journalism....