Trump’s administration will be a ‘bumpy road’ for Canadian businesses

U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are not yet in place, but already have consequences for Canadians, according to business owners and experts.

“Uncertainty means people are going to keep their hands in their pockets and not invest in their business, maybe not hire a new employee,”  says Patrick Sullivan, the CEO of the Halifax Chamber of Commerce.

Sullivan mediated a panel discussion hosted by the chamber on Thursday. The event provided 150 members in attendance with historical and economic context for the 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods threatened by Trump, which could be imposed this weekend.

Sullivan said businesses rely on planning ahead, but no one can predict Trump’s next move.

Pierre Cléroux, an economist at the Business Development Bank of Canada, Jean-Paul Deveau, the president and CEO of Acadian Seaplants Ltd., and Robert Huish, an international studies professor at Dalhousie University, spoke on the implications of the tariff threats.

The experts said if Trump follows through on the 25 per cent threat, the move would put Canada into a recession. But, they said, this is unlikely, as it would be damaging to the U.S. economy and impact American consumers.

Tariffs will likely target specific industries instead, Cléroux said over Zoom on a projector at the event. “That will definitely be very difficult for these sectors, but it won’t create a recession.”

Trump has suggested he could lift any tariffs he levies on Canada and Mexico if the countries improve border security, improve defence and make improvements on the trade deficit with the U.S.

Trump said on Thursday that tariffs will begin on Saturday.

Cléroux said the tariff threats are causing business owners to be cautious with their investments.

“Rightly so,” he said. “They’re waiting to see what will happen.”

He said this trend will be a “drag” on the economy, but price stability has improved and inflation is going down.

“In the long run, we’ll be OK,” said Cléroux. “We’ll have a bumpy road for the next four years.”

In 2023, over $3 billion worth of goods and services crossed the Canada-U.S. border daily. Nova Scotia exports more than $100 million in tires alone every month to the U.S.

Paula Minnikin, owner of Minnikin Resources, a management consultants firm, attended the event. She said her biggest takeaway was that there is “no logic” behind Trump’s decisions.

“We have to just be ready to react on a dime whenever he changes his mind, and that’s all we can do.”

She said she is used to adapting to an ever-changing market, but 40 per cent of her clients are American and the tensions between the countries cause some to be hesitant to involve a Canadian company.

“They just don’t want to make him unhappy,” she said about a client relying on the U.S federal government for a large portion of their funding.

“They don’t want to have large Canadian components in their projects, for fear that that would have the whole project tanked.”