Shubenacadie Sam stays inside, predicts early spring

Shubenacadie Sam didn’t even have to leave her home to predict an early spring this year. 

Groundhog Day at Shubenacadie Wildlife Park was cancelled on Monday due to a nor’easter hitting the province overnight. The marmot was not taken out of her home in the park, so she didn’t see her shadow, indicating Nova Scotia will see an early spring.

“I think we can all recognize that Shubenacadie Sam and other groundhog prognosticators are a lot of fun, but they’re not meteorologists,” says Andrew Boyne, the province’s natural resources director of wildlife. 

Originally, the Groundhog Day tradition was brought to North America by German settlers as a way to predict an early spring or six more weeks of winter. On Feb. 2, if the groundhog comes out of hibernation and sees its shadow, it goes back to sleep for six weeks. But if the groundhog does not see its shadow and stays outside, then winter is almost over and spring will arrive soon. 

Many Canadian and American communities have kept the groundhog folklore alive.

Despite not being a professional meteorologist, Shubenacadie Sam tends to be more accurate than other groundhogs at predicting the season.

According to The Weather Network, Shubenacadie Sam has been the second most accurate groundhog in Canada since 2000, with a 58 per cent success rate. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States found Punxsutawney Phil, one of the most famous groundhogs, only had a 35 per cent success rate. 

“Sam does better than a coin flip,” says Boyne. “It is just folklore. I don’t think we can put a whole lot of credibility into it, but meteorologists are wrong too.” 

Dalhousie student Gabby Luciano doesn’t believe much in the groundhog’s prediction but she does understand why people are invested in the tradition.

“I think for the fun of society, it’s really nice to have these little moments to look forward to throughout the year,” says Luciano. “Winter can be a really hard time for people and I feel like Groundhog Day gives someone the chance to see a little bit of hope.” 

While the weather might have kept Shubenacadie Sam inside, it didn’t stop a reluctant Lucy the Lobster from checking if she could see her shadow in Barrington, N.S. 

“She was kind of being a diva, she didn’t want to go to our usual location, which is Cape Sable Island,” says Suzy Atwood, director of tourism and marketing for the Municipality of Barrington.

Instead, Lucy did her prediction outside of her home, Capt. Kat’s Lobster Shack, and did not see her shadow — also predicting an early spring. 

Because Shubenacadie Sam didn’t make an appearance this year, Lucy had to handle the pressure of predicting all by herself. 

“She took it like the trooper that she is,” says Atwood. “I think she kind of outdid Sam this year because she actually showed up.”